Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook – Flood Potential: LOW

Ganaraska Watershed – The Ganaraska Region Conservation Authority advises that a weather system will move
into Southern Ontario Wednesday night with the potential for 30-40mm of rainfall by Thursday evening. The
forecast rainfall combined with melting snow and frozen ground conditions will result in higher than normal water
levels and flows in local watercourses.

Recent mild weather and light rain has reduced the snowpack in depth and water content, however there is still
some water holding in the snow that will add runoff during this storm. Much of the ground is currently frozen and
will have little ability to absorb the snowmelt or rainfall causing it to runoff quickly to local water bodies. In
addition, there is a significant amount of ice accumulation on the rivers and creeks that could break up as water
levels rise and currents increase.

Mild air and gusty winds are expected to move in Wednesday afternoon followed by light rain. The heaviest rain is
not expected until the next morning when snowmelt will combine with the rain to increase water levels and flows
in local streams. There is potential for ice break up resulting in localized ice jams on Thursday. By Thursday evening
cold air will move across the region which will cause the flows to reduce overnight.

High flows at this time of year can be dangerous. Slippery stream banks and fast flowing, cold water will create
hazardous conditions around all bodies of water. As a result, local streams and rivers may become dangerous,
especially in the vicinity of culverts and bridges. In addition, ice covered streams, ponds and wetlands should be
avoided due to thinning or unstable ice conditions. Children should be warned to stay away from all watercourses
and shorelines.

This Watershed Conditions Statement will be in effect through Friday, February 18th, 2022. Conservation
Authority staff will continue to monitor watershed conditions and provide updates as necessary. Should you have
any questions or wish to report flooding, please contact GRCA staff at 905-885-8173.